Twitter · 宏观

Trump: May Ask European Countries To Release Diesel Stocks

TRUMP: PRICES ARE “COMING DOWN RAPIDLY” President Trump says prices are “way down” from levels under the Biden administration and claims they are continuing to fall rapidly. Trump blamed Democrats for elevated prices and said Republicans are “fixing it.” The remarks are Trump’s characterization of current price trends; the post itself does not provide supporting economic data.

*Wright: We'll See Lower Gasoline, Diesel Prices Come Election

IRAN OFFERS NUCLEAR INSPECTOR ACCESS FOR SANCTIONS RELIEF Iran has privately signaled it could restore nuclear inspectors’ access to bombed facilities in exchange for sanctions relief, Bloomberg reports. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi raised the proposal during UN meetings with European and Middle Eastern diplomats. The potential concession comes as U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled and Tehran faces mounting economic pressure from sanctions and the U.S. naval blockade.

Iran Offers To Allow Nuclear Inspectors If Sanctions Are Eased

Us Energy Secretary Chris Wright:Europe Can Help The Situation And I'm Highly Confident They Will

Us Energy Secretary Chris Wright:Absolutely We Will Ask Europe To Release Strategic Diesel Reserves - Fox News

GOP WEIGHS DEBT-LIMIT HIKE BEFORE NEW CONGRESS Republican lawmakers are considering raising the U.S. debt ceiling during the post-election lame-duck session, potentially using budget reconciliation to avoid needing Democratic votes. House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington has floated a roughly $4 trillion increase, after Congress raised the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion in 2025. The proposal would address borrowing needs expected to become more pressing in 2027, while Congress also faces a Dec. 11 government-funding deadline.

Oil Futures Extend Gains , Brent Last Up 4.6%, Wti Up 2.8% After China Suspends Oil Exports

AUGUST JOBS STRENGTH MAY HAVE BEEN OVERSTATED August payroll growth of 162K was boosted by unusually favorable seasonal adjustments. On an unadjusted basis, the economy added just 154K jobs, near 2025 levels. Using last year’s seasonal factor, August payroll growth would have been only around 15K. The distortion suggests August’s headline strength may be a weak benchmark for September, reinforcing the need to focus on underlying payroll trends.

*Trump Expects To Resume Iran Bombing By End Of November: Wsj

TRUMP: IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT ELIMINATED “IN ONE NIGHT” President Trump says he had repeatedly estimated it would take 4–6 weeks to eliminate what he calls the “Iran nuclear threat,” but claims it was accomplished “in one night.” Trump says subsequent U.S. actions are aimed at ensuring the threat does not return.

*Us Sending Third Aircraft Carrier To Middle East: Wsj *Us Sending Up To 10,000 More Troops To Middle East : Wsj

U.S. SENDS THIRD AIRCRAFT CARRIER TOWARD MIDDLE EAST The Pentagon is deploying another aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine ships to the Middle East, adding roughly 9,000–10,000 troops, according to the WSJ. The forces are expected to arrive by late November, as President Trump considers renewed strikes on Iran if no agreement is reached. More than 50,000 U.S. troops are already deployed in the region.

FED’S KASHKARI OPEN-MINDED ON OCTOBER RATE HIKE Fed’s Neel Kashkari says he has “no strong view” on an October hike and remains open-minded on the pace of tightening. His September projections called for one more hike in 2026 and another in 2027. Kashkari said the economy has outperformed expectations and warned the Fed may need to hike more if strength persists, while inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%.

FED LEADERS SIGNAL NO URGENCY FOR OCTOBER RATE HIKE Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson says officials “may take more time” before deciding on another rate increase, echoing NY Fed President John Williams. Their aligned message suggests Fed leadership favors a patient approach after September’s hike. Market-implied odds of an October hike have fallen from more than two-thirds to around one-third this week.

*Jefferson Says Fed May Need ‘More Time’ To Decide On Next Move *Jefferson: Inflation Risks Are Tilted To The Upside *Jefferson: Not Seeing Inflation Spillovers From Tariffs, Energy *Jefferson: Expect Near-Term Growth To Remain At First-Half Pace *Jefferson: Fed Can’T Consider Each Supply Shock In Isolation *Jefferson: Us Economy Buffeted By ‘Cascade’ Of Shocks *Jefferson: Expect Elevated Inflation In Short Run, Then Decline

ANTHROPIC TARGETS IPO BEFORE THANKSGIVING Anthropic is reportedly seeking to go public as soon as mid-November, with formal IPO marketing potentially starting the week of Nov. 9. Prospective investors see a potential valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. The Claude developer is still expected to debut by year-end, though the timeline could shift.

Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Briefly Hit Lowest Level Since September 22, Last Down 12.68 Basis Points At 4.76%

FED’S JEFFERSON SIGNALS PATIENCE ON NEXT RATE MOVE Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says the Fed “may take more time” before its next rate decision, with future moves driven by incoming data. He said inflation remains above target with upside risks, while the economy and labor market remain broadly solid. Jefferson also warned that persistent inflation could spill into inflation expectations.

ANTHROPIC SAID TO TARGET MEGA-IPO BEFORE THANKSGIVING Kalshi traders now price a 71% chance Anthropic officially announces an IPO before Dec. 1, rising to 76% before Jan. 1. https://t.co/URbZQEmaD9

*Anthropic Said To Target Mega-Ipo Before Thanksgiving Holiday

Euro Extends Loses Against Us Dollar, Last Down 1% At $1.12165

California Attorney General: Serves Investigative Subpoena On Openai Over Cybersecurity Incidents - Website California Ag: “My Office Is Asking Openai Additional Questions Regarding Cybersecurity Incidents And Risks Involving The Company And Its Ai Models”

Putin: They May Get Them Back In Favourable Scenario

Putin: Some European Countries, Including Germany, Seize Russian Assets Putin: We Are Responding In Kind

Houthi-Run Saba News Agency, Citing Military Source, Denies Group Attacked Power Station In Saudi Arabia's Medina

*Putin: Russia Ready To Resume Dialog With Us On Arms Control

*Putin Says He Open To Trilateral Talks With Us, China

*Trump On Iran: Now I Have To Make A Decision *Trump: Either Iran Signs Deal, Or It Won't Exist Any Longer

Trump: Interest Rates Can Slow Down Growth. We Want Growth — And Growth Does Not Cause Inflation

BOFA STOCK SENTIMENT NEARS “SELL” SIGNAL Bank of America’s Sell Side Indicator rose to 57.2% in September, its highest since March 2022 and just 0.3 percentage points below BofA’s “sell” threshold. The contrarian indicator tracks Wall Street strategists’ recommended equity allocations. Historically, when it reaches “sell” territory, the S&P 500 has returned only about 3% over the following 12 months. Meanwhile, fund managers’ bond allocations are at their lowest since early 2022.

https://t.co/LDy0rtNnVh

Us Issues New Iran-Related Sanctions -Us Treasury Website Us Targets Iran's Rail And Automobile Conglomerates In Latest Sanctions That Aim To Isolate Tehran Economically, Treasury Department Says

Putin: Russia's Proposals To Deliver Enriched Uranium From Iran To Russia Are Still Valid

Putin: Says "No" To Proposals To Halt Strikes In Black Sea

Putin: Russian Diesel Will Not Get To Global Markets As There Are Sanctions Against Russian Oil

OPENAI PARTS WAYS WITH THREE SAFETY RESEARCHERS OpenAI has parted ways with three safety researchers for allegedly sharing confidential company information with a third-party AI-safety organization, according to the WSJ. OpenAI said an internal investigation found the individuals mishandled sensitive information outside established procedures, violating company policies. The move comes amid heightened scrutiny of AI safety and security risks.

Openai Parts Ways With Three Researchers For Allegedly Sharing Confidential Information With Third-Party Ai-Safety Organization, Sources Say

VENEZUELA OIL EXPORTS FALL, U.S. SHIPMENTS RISE Venezuela’s oil exports fell to 1.08 million bpd in September, while shipments to the U.S. increased to 629,000 bpd. Exports to India fell to 253,000 bpd and Europe to 86,000 bpd. Chevron’s Venezuelan crude exports were nearly unchanged at 283,000 bpd.

Eu Trade Chief Sefcovic Says He Discussed High Diesel Prices With Ustr Greer, Expressed Europe's Desire For Coordinated Approach

Putin: Western Intelligence Assistance To Ukraine To Strike Deep Into Russia Represents A Threat For The Future

Putin: We Are Not Threatening Anyone And We Do Not Plan To Attack Any European Countries, Not In 2030, Not In 2050

Putin: We Are Not Going To Attack Anyone, But Will Respond If We Face Aggression

Putin: If Threat Emerges To Russian Exclave Of Kaliningrad We Will Consider Using All Weapons In Our Arsenal

Putin On Threats Over Kaliningrad: We Do Not Scare Anyone Putin: Military Drills, Arrests Of Russian Vessels Is An Escalation Putin: Emergence On The Agenda Of Usage Of All Available Means Will Be Unavoidable

CITADEL’S RUBNER: Q4 IS THE “RELOAD” Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner expects retail investors to return to U.S. stocks in October after trading activity cooled sharply in September. He says lower positioning, cheaper valuations, returning corporate buybacks and earnings season create a better setup for investors to rebuild exposure. “September delivered much of the reset we wanted to see. Q4 is the reload,” Rubner said.

Eu Energy Union Taskforce To Meet Friday To Discuss Potential Diesel Stock Releases, Two Eu Diplomats Say

Trump: Discussed Release Of Political Prisoners With China's Xi

U.S. Treasury Yields Extend Gains; Yield On 10-Year Treasury Note Last Up 4.72 Basis Points At 5.34% Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yields, Last Flat At 4.883%

French 5-Year Cds Widen Further To 73.05 Bps, Highest Since July 2013

Us Sep Final Manuf Pmi 55.9 (57.0 Flash, 53.9 Aug)

Fed's Collins: Won't Get Ahead Of The Next Meeting

French 5-Year Credit Default Swaps Climb To Multi-Year High Of 72Bps, S&Amp;P Global Market Intelligence

TRUMP CONSIDERS PREEMPTIVE PARDONS President Trump says he would consider preemptively pardoning members of his administration before leaving office, potentially protecting them from future federal prosecution. Asked by Time whether he would issue such pardons, Trump said: “Yeah, sure I’d do that.” Trump cited former President Biden’s preemptive pardons in 2025 as a precedent.

IRAN SAYS IT WILL CONTINUE SEEKING DIALOGUE WITH U.S. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran will continue pursuing dialogue with Washington despite previous attacks during negotiations, according to Tasnim. His comments come as Qatar mediates indirect talks aimed at ending the conflict. Iran is reportedly reviewing the latest U.S. response to its proposal involving reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and lifting the naval blockade.

CHICAGO FED SEES SEPTEMBER UNEMPLOYMENT AT 4.1% The Chicago Fed estimates the U.S. unemployment rate at 4.10% in September, slightly below August’s 4.14%. The improvement reflects better hiring prospects for unemployed workers and slightly lower separations. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show unemployment at 4.1% for a third straight month.

Us Jobless Claims -1K To 197K In Sep-26 Wk; Survey 200K Us Sep-19 Week Continuing Claims -11K To 1,701,000 Us Sep-19 Week Jobless Claims Revised To 198K

German Economy Ministry On Diesel Reserves: We Do Not Speculate About Possible Future Events

German Economy Ministry On Diesel Reserves: At This Time, No New Requirements From Iea

EUROPE HOLDS EMERGENCY TALKS ON DIESEL RESERVES European nations are holding emergency talks over releasing strategic fuel reserves after pressure from Washington to boost supply. The U.S. has already approved another 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The push comes as diesel prices surge amid disruptions linked to the Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. The IEA is due to meet Friday on potential further action.

https://t.co/EDVUWjvAPI

FED’S KASHKARI: U.S. ECONOMY KEEPS SURPRISING WITH ITS RESILIENCE Fed’s Neel Kashkari says consumer spending remains strong and the labor market is broadly healthy, with economic resilience continuing to surprise him. He said further rate hikes would put uneven pressure across the economy, with housing-related sectors already under significant strain. Kashkari also said businesses are talking more about inflation than interest rates, while emphasizing there is “clearly not a wage-price spiral” today.

TRUMP SAYS RENEWED IRAN BOMBING ‘POSSIBLE’ AFTER MIDTERMS President Trump says ramping up military strikes against Iran after the November midterms is “possible,” as the war enters its eighth month. Trump also downplayed concerns over depleted U.S. munitions, saying America still has “a lot of weapons,” while acknowledging some ammunition stocks are lower. The comments come as Washington and Tehran remain unable to reach an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

$AAPL - MORGAN STANLEY SEES APPLE ENTERING MAJOR PRODUCT CYCLE Morgan Stanley cut its Apple price target to $355 from $360, while maintaining an Overweight rating. The bank says Apple’s next 2+ years of innovation under new CEO John Ternus could be among its most consequential in over a decade, driving four consecutive years of iPhone unit growth. Morgan Stanley forecasts EPS near $10 in FY27 and $11 in FY28, with earnings compounding around 13% through FY28.

Trump Says Ai Industry ‘Bigger’ Than Internet, Industrial Revolution: Time

Trump Says He May Ramp Up Iran Bombing After Midterms If No Deal: Time Trump Says Some U.S. Ammunition Stocks ‘A Little Bit Lower’: Time Trump Says Raytheon, Lockheed Expanding Patriot, Thaad Capacity: Time U.S. Military Fired More Than 1,200 Patriot Interceptors: Time Iran War Had Cost U.S. More Than $25 Billion: Time

Fed's Kashkari: Economy Keeps Surprising Me How Resilient It Is

CITI RAISES BITCOIN TARGET TO $113,000 Citi has raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000, implying roughly 35% upside from current levels near $83,900. The bank points to renewed currency-debasement fears, greater regulatory clarity and continued adoption of Bitcoin in investor portfolios. Citi also expects ETF inflows to remain relatively sticky and consistent, providing a sustained source of demand as institutional adoption expands.

Totalenergies To Invest $10 Billion In Argentina, Ceo Pouyanne Says

*Trump Says He 'doesn't Blame Kevin' On Interest Rates: Time

Trump To Time: Some Forms Of Ammunition Are A Little Bit Lower

*Trump Sees Ramping Up Bombing Iran After Midterms Possible:Time

EU COORDINATES POSSIBLE ENERGY RESERVE RELEASE WITH U.S. The European Commission says it is in high-level talks with the U.S. administration over the global oil market and potential emergency stock releases. Brussels is coordinating EU member states’ positions through the IEA, describing the situation as a “global energy price crisis.” The talks come as Washington pressures Europe to release emergency diesel inventories.

HSBC: INVESTORS ROTATING OUT OF FRANCE INTO UK HSBC says European equity funds are shifting capital from France toward the UK, as concerns over France’s fiscal outlook intensify. The bank recently cut France to Underweight, citing worsening public finances, weaker growth forecasts and deteriorating earnings expectations. HSBC remains Overweight European technology and sees higher bond yields continuing to support financial stocks.

*Eu In Contact With Member States On Emergency Diesel Stocks

Euro Slide Continues; Last Down 0.55% At $1.127

$Avgo - Broadcom To Lend Up To $42 Billion To Anthropic For Infrastructure Lease Agreements, According To Ipo Prospectus

Trump Administration Has Been Taking Steps To Turn China's Dependence On Us Aviation Suppliers Into Leverage For Trade Negotiations, Sources Say

AWS HIKES GPU PRICES AGAIN AS AI DEMAND STAYS STRONG AWS will raise reserved GPU compute prices by 15% on October 7, following a 20% increase in July, according to Wells Fargo. It marks the fourth consecutive quarterly increase, with H100/H200 and B200/B300 pricing now up 40–75% YTD. Wells Fargo sees the pricing power supporting AWS revenue acceleration into early 2027 and maintains Overweight on Amazon ($AMZN ) with a $338 target.

GOLDMAN REFRESHES TOP U.S. STOCK PICKS Goldman Sachs added Amazon ($AMZN), Burlington Stores ($BURL), Huntington Ingalls ($HII), Johnson Controls ($JCI) and Occidental Petroleum ($OXY) to its “Director’s Cut” list. Goldman removed Air Products ($APD), ConocoPhillips ($COP), Golar LNG ($GLNG), Loar Holdings ($LOAR) and Tyson Foods ($TSN).

Syrian Officials And Hezbollah Met In Turkey Last Month In First Known Meeting Between Longtime Foes, Sources Tell Reuters Meeting In Turkey Covered Mutual Security Concerns, And Progress Was Made, Sources Say

EU COORDINATES POTENTIAL MASSIVE DIESEL STOCK RELEASE The EU is coordinating a joint position on releasing emergency diesel reserves after the U.S. requested European action to ease fuel prices and avert a potential export ban. Reuters reports Washington is seeking a 120 million-barrel release over six months. Diesel markets are already reacting, with U.S. and European refining margins falling sharply on the prospect of additional supply.

U.S. LAYOFF PLANS FALL SHARPLY IN SEPTEMBER U.S. employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August and the lowest September total since 2022, according to Challenger Gray. Year-to-date layoffs are down 39% from 2025. However, technology cuts jumped 77% month-over-month, while announced hiring was the weakest for any September since 2011.

RUSSIA SAYS NUCLEAR WARNING TO NATO IS NOT “CONFRONTATIONAL” The Kremlin says Russia’s letter to NATO signaling readiness to resort to nuclear weapons should not be viewed as confrontational, arguing it is intended to ensure Kaliningrad’s security. Moscow says the message comes amid a rapid military buildup in Europe, while criticizing what it describes as persistent anti-Russian policies.

U.K. 30-Year Gilt Hit 6.029%, Highest Since 1998: Lseg

Cboe Volatility Index Hits Over Two-Week High; Last Up 0.5 Points At 16.86

*Birol Says Diesel Situation Is Very Tight In Europe And Beyond

Italy's 10-Year Government Bond Yields Reach Highest Since November 2023 At 4.7232%, Up 10 Bps

🇫🇷 French 5-Year Cds Hit 71.6 Bps, Highest Since July 2013, As Bonds Sell Off

Us Wants The Eu To Release 120 Million Barrels Of Diesel In The Next 6 Months, One Of The Sources Said

U.S. PRESSURES FRANCE AND GERMANY TO RELEASE DIESEL RESERVES The Trump administration has told France and Germany to draw down emergency diesel stocks to help lower global fuel prices, Reuters reports. If they refuse, Washington is threatening a potential U.S. diesel export ban, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

*Us 10-Year Yield Rises To 5.33%, Highest Since 2002